Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz?
Middle EastGéopolitiqueOne-Off6moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 75%
Prévisionnistes
47
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète5 avr. 26, 22:29 UTC5 avr. 27, 22:27 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, 1 month after the Strait of Hormuz is opened to typical amounts of traffic (>50% of traffic prior to the closure), there is a public agreement between Iran and the relevant international parties (e.g., the U.S. or a UN-backed coalition) that explicitly includes both of the following conditions:
- Substantial sanctions relief: A verifiable, significant easing of economic sanctions currently imposed on Iran by major international powers (not merely minor exemptions or renewals).
- Tolls on ships: The formal establishment of a mechanism allowing Iran to legally levy tolls or fees on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- The market resolves to NO if no such agreement is reached by the date specified, or if an agreement is reached that does not include both provisions.
- Official government press releases, international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP, Bloomberg), and verified transcripts of diplomatic agreements will be used to determine the outcome.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 75% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz? doit être résolu le 5 avril 2027.
- Comment Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria