Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz before April 5, 2027?
Moyen-OrientGéopolitiqueOne-Off5mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 20:05 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 77.2%
Prévisionnistes
47
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète5 avr. 26, 22:29 UTC5 avr. 27, 22:27 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the U.S. grant CAATSA sanctions relief to Turkey this year?
KalshiWill Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will assist militarily in reopening the Strait of Hormuz during ongoing hostilities?
Manifold MarketsUS reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by which date?
PolymarketWill the Graham Act sanctions take effect in 2026?
KalshiUS imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, 1 month after the Strait of Hormuz is opened to typical amounts of traffic (>50% of traffic prior to the closure), there is a public agreement between Iran and the relevant international parties (e.g., the U.S. or a UN-backed coalition) that explicitly includes both of the following conditions:
- Substantial sanctions relief: A verifiable, significant easing of economic sanctions currently imposed on Iran by major international powers (not merely minor exemptions or renewals).
- Tolls on ships: The formal establishment of a mechanism allowing Iran to legally levy tolls or fees on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- The market resolves to NO if no such agreement is reached by April 5, 2027, or if an agreement is reached that does not include both provisions.
- Official government press releases, international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP, Bloomberg), and verified transcripts of diplomatic agreements will be used to determine the outcome.