Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027?
One-OffMoyen-OrientGéopolitique2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 58.9%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète3 avr. 26, 19:40 UTC1 janv. 27, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, as of 12:00 PM UTC on January 1st, 2027, the government of Iran or entities acting under its authority (such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) are actively requiring or enforcing the payment of tolls for the passage of commercial vessels through any part of the Strait of Hormuz.
- The market will resolve to NO if such a regime is not in effect at that time.
- Resolution will be determined by consensus of credible international reporting (e.g., major news outlets like Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg, or maritime industry monitors like Lloyd's List Intelligence).
- Clear evidence of a functional, officially sanctioned, or de facto toll collection system—where passage is conditioned upon payment—will satisfy the criteria for a YES.
- The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global maritime chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.
