Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
PolitiqueOne-OffGéopolitiqueMiddle EastUS Politics3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 54.9%
Prévisionnistes
64
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
28 févr. 26, 16:48 UTC1 janv. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsWill Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 while the US/Iran war continues?
Manifold MarketsNext round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
PolymarketUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
PolymarketWhat will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- The US and Iran will be considered at war if military hostilities between the two nations are actively occurring on January 1st, 2027.
- This includes direct combat operations, sustained military strikes, or active armed conflict.
- Iran's retaliatory ballistic missile attacks on US military bases and Israel following the February 28, 2026 US and Israeli military strikes on Iran constitute evidence of active warfare.
- The market resolves YES if military operations continue through January 1st, 2027.
- The market resolves NO if a ceasefire, peace agreement, or cessation of hostilities has been established before that date, or if no active military conflict exists on that date.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 55% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria