Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 80%
Prévisionnistes
35
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète25 mars 26, 20:04 UTC25 mars 27, 19:48 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Trump be impeached?
KalshiWill Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
PolymarketWil Trump be impeached by the House in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill President Trump be impeached during his term?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Trump is impeached by the House of Representatives before the Iran war ends.
- The Iran war is defined as the conflict that began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on multiple sites across Iran.
- The war ends when a ceasefire agreement is formally signed and takes effect, or when major combat operations cease for 14 days
- Resolution will be determined by:
- Impeachment: Official House vote to impeach Trump on any charges
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsKALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-1.0pt84%
- Republican Party16%
- Volume total
- 25,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 812,4 k €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.4%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 564 k €
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- D-House, D-Senate+1.0pt46.6%
- D-House, R-Senate35.9%
- R-House, R-Senate-1.0pt15.5%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIRhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Helena Foulkes-1.4pt98%
- Dan McKee+1.3pt2%
- Gregory Stevens-0.1pt0%
- Volume total
- 734,4 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva52%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+1.3pt45.1%
- Renan Santos+0.8pt2%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)-1.0pt74%
- New People (NL)+0.1pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.2pt3%
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Next French Presidential Election
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Texas Senate winner?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Trump impeached before Iran war's end? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 80% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Trump impeached before Iran war's end? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Trump impeached before Iran war's end? doit être résolu le 25 mars 2027.
- Comment Trump impeached before Iran war's end? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria