Will the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections?
Politique américaineGéopolitiqueOne-OffMoyen-Orient9j
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 94%
Prévisionnistes
36
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète3 avr. 26, 17:21 UTC5 nov. 26, 00:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 while the US/Iran war continues?
Manifold MarketsWhich Representative or Senator will have the highest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketUS-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if BOTH conditions are met before November 3, 2026:
- Formal agreement: A ceasefire, armistice, or peace agreement is signed by authorized representatives of both the US and Iranian governments.
- Operational cessation: Active military operations (airstrikes, ground combat, naval engagements) between US and Iranian forces have ceased for 14 or more consecutive days.
- Both conditions must be confirmed by at least two of: AP, Reuters, AFP, BBC, or NYT.
- Resolves NO if active hostilities are ongoing or no formal agreement exists as of November 3, 2026.
- Context: The US-Israel war against Iran began February 28, 2026.
