Which Representative or Senator will have the highest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?
7.4 pts (24h)PolitiqueOne-OffÉlectionGéopolitique4moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOther 43.7%-7.4ptEn tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+1.7 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète21 janv. 25, 06:12 UTC1 févr. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
0.5%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which incumbent Representative or Senator will have the lowest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?
Manifold MarketsThe 2026 US Congressional election will be free and fair
Manifold MarketsWill the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsNext High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026?
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRègles
Earlier this week, Split Ticket released their 2024 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Model for the 2024 US Election.
- This model measures how well a candidate outperformed "controlling for seat partisanship, incumbency, demographics, and money", and is intended to be a barometer for candidate quality in Congressional races in both the House and the Senate.
- For this market, I will only consider those who win their races (whether incumbent or not).
- 2024's top performers were Dusty Johnson (R|SD-AL) at 9.93, Angus King (I/D|ME-SEN) at 9.78, and Amy Klobuchar (D|MN-SEN) at 8.47.
- Feel free to add your own answers, however please follow the format established and do not add any duplicates.
- 2024 House WAR
