Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September?
MonthlyGéopolitiqueMiddle EastHealth & Medicine22jManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 61.3%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
5 sept. 26, 04:38 UTC30 sept. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, between its creation on September 5, 2026, and September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, Iranian state military forces (including the regular military/Artesh or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps/IRGC) execute an attack that successfully strikes a U.S. military base or a military facility housing U.S. armed forces.
- For the purposes of this market, a "strike" requires a projectile, missile, or drone to physically impact, detonate within the perimeter of, or cause documented damage or casualties at the targeted U.S. military facility.
- Attacks that are fully intercepted, shot down, or land harmlessly outside the facility's perimeter without causing documented damage or casualties will resolve the market to NO.
- Any attacks that occurred prior to the market's creation (such as the attacks on September 1–3, 2026) are excluded and will not count toward a YES resolution.
- Sources of Truth: Resolution will be determined using official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), or consensus reports from major independent international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Agence France-Presse).
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 61% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September? doit être résolu le 30 septembre 2026.
- Comment Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria