Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 55.3%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète8 mai 23, 20:32 UTC31 mai 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves YES when I complete my Ph.D. (measured by successfully defending my thesis) or NO if I have not done so by the close date (5 academic years after my start).
- I appear to be moving at a pace where this seems plausible but research is unpredictable.
- There are also potential reasons why I may try to do a 6th year even if not strictly necessary (funding isn't necessarily guaranteed for a 6th year but can be obtained sometimes).
- Currently though I'd like to graduate in 5 if I can.
- Since my personal decisions can influence this market's outcome significantly, I won't bet on it.
Marchés ouverts
Science
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.4pt3%
- September 30+0.1pt0%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 61,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 750,8 k €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202920%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 20275%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 30,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 30 k €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+0.5pt75%
- 2+1.0pt24%
- 3+0.1pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-1.0pt69%
- No31%
- Volume total
- 311,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,8 k €
KALSHIWhen will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- before 2027+17.0pt95%
- before December+20.0pt90%
- before November+30.0pt86%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+2.0pt40%
- Above 1+3.0pt18%
- Above 24%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 109,9 k €
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?
- Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?
- Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
- How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
- AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- What named storms will be hurricanes in the Central Pacific this year?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will I get my math Ph.D. within 5 years of starting? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 55.3% au 23 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will I get my math Ph.D. within 5 years of starting? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will I get my math Ph.D. within 5 years of starting? doit être résolu le 31 mai 2027.
- Comment Will I get my math Ph.D. within 5 years of starting? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES when I complete my Ph.D. (measured by successfully defending my thesis) or NO if I have not done so by the close date (5 academic years after my start).