Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 90.3%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard27 août 24, 13:42 UTC1 janv. 30, 18:29 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will an individual or governmental entity conduct a geoengineering project to lower global temperatures by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill average global temperatures rise to 2.0 Celsius above pre-industrial baseline within 10 years?
Manifold MarketsWill the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
KalshiWill average world temperatures exceed average temperatures of the Eemian interglacial 110k years ago, by 2070?
Manifold MarketsAverage global surface air temperature anomaly in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?
FutuurIf ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it be able to survive these temperatures within a year?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves based on the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly reported by NASA’s GISTEMP v4 dataset.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if the annual global temperature anomaly is ≥ +1.5°C relative to the 1850–1900 (pre-industrial) baseline in any single calendar year from 2024 through 2030 (inclusive).
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- No Early Resolution
- This market will NOT resolve early, even if the threshold is reached before 2030.
