Average global surface air temperature anomaly in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?
MétéoDaily2mois
FutuurVérifier la disponibilitéDonnées de résolution vérifiéesProbabilité implicite actuelle
Between 1.43 °C and 1.47 °C (inclusive) 38.4%En tête parmi 5 options
Between 1.43 °C and 1.47 °C (inclusive) 38.4%Qualité du marché
41 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
14,6 k €
Liquidité moyenneTraders
14
Commentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 minutes
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will average global temperatures rise to 2.0 Celsius above pre-industrial baseline within 10 years?
Manifold MarketsAt what temperature anomaly will global warming peak before the Earth starts cooling again?
Manifold MarketsNew Zealand's annual temperature anomaly (against a 1960-90 climate baseline) will not be below +1°C before 2030
Manifold MarketsLength of longest sequence of years with an increasing July temperature anomaly for the period 2020-2035.
Manifold MarketsWill the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
KalshiWill the average Global Temperature in 2026 be greater than 1.38 C (2.48 F) above the 20th century average?
ForecastExRègles
What will the global average surface air temperature anomaly for the full year 2026 be, expressed in degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline? Each listed market below corresponds to one mutually exclusive range; exactly one will resolve "Yes".
- The Primary Designated Source is the Data Action Foundation's Climate Change Tracker.
- Resolution uses the first Yearly Average Observed Temperature Anomaly value reported by the tracker for the full year 2026 (timestamped after 2026).
- If the methodology changes substantially, Futuur might follow the same methodology to calculate the value for 2026.
- Otherwise, this question may be annulled.