Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040?
ÉconomieOne-OffChinaGéopolitiqueMacro & Economy13aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 63.6%
Prévisionnistes
131
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète18 févr. 22, 20:40 UTC1 janv. 40, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will China ever surpass US gdp?
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Manifold MarketsWill there be a war between the United States and China before 2040?
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KalshiWill the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
KalshiRègles
This question resolves to YES if China surpasses the United States before January 1st 2040 Eastern Time on ALL three of the following metrics:
- Nominal GDP per the International Monetary Fund.
- If the IMF ceases to exist or stops publishing figures, I'll choose another organization at my discretion.
- Military expenditures per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
- If the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute ceases to exist or stops publishing figures, I'll choose another organization at my discretion.
- The Nature Index.
Marchés ouverts
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 89,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 541,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 334,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8 k €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 10,7 k €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume total
- 612,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 6,9 k €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 2,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,3 k €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 64% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2040.
- Comment Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This question resolves to YES if China surpasses the United States before January 1st 2040 Eastern Time on ALL three of the following metrics: