Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040?
ÉconomieOne-OffChineGéopolitiqueMacro et économie13aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 05:17 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète18 févr. 22, 20:40 UTC1 janv. 40, 05:00 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRègles
This question resolves to YES if China surpasses the United States before January 1st 2040 Eastern Time on ALL three of the following metrics:
- Nominal GDP per the International Monetary Fund.
- If the IMF ceases to exist or stops publishing figures, I'll choose another organization at my discretion.
- Military expenditures per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
- If the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute ceases to exist or stops publishing figures, I'll choose another organization at my discretion.
- The Nature Index.
