What will happen in the world throughout the 2020s
31.7 pts (24h)RégulationOne-OffMacro et économieTechEspaceÉconomieIAGéopolitiqueChineAmérique latineSanté et médecine3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleA country officially transitions to 100% renewable energy for electricity. 81.7%+31.7ptEn tête parmi 16 options
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+31.7 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 minutes
11 oct. 26, 03:29 UTC31 déc. 29, 11:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What will happen in the world in the 2030s
Manifold MarketsWill the federal government ban the sale or making of cultured meat throughout US by the end of 2028?
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Manifold MarketsThroughout the 2028 presidental debates, will Ukraine be mentioned more times than Taiwan?
Manifold MarketsWhich Money & Macro megatrends for 2026 will be correct?
Manifold MarketsWhich positive news category will make 2026 world-wide headlines?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- Each option in this market resolves independently to YES, NO, or N/A based on whether the specified event occurs on or before December 31, 2029, 23:59 UTC:
- A human lands on Mars: Resolves YES if a crewed space mission successfully lands a living human on the surface of Mars.
- A major global economy adopts a central bank digital currency (CBDC): Resolves YES if a top-10 economy by nominal GDP (e.g., US, China, Eurozone members, Japan, UK, India, Brazil) officially launches and deploys a retail or commercial CBDC nationally.
- Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is officially recognized by a major research body: Resolves YES if a major AI research institution (e.g., OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, or an international body like AAAI) formally announces that an AI system has achieved human-level general intelligence.
- A permanent base is established on the Moon: Resolves YES if a habitat intended for sustained or recurring human presence (e.g., NASA Artemis Base Camp or the International Lunar Research Station) is operational on the lunar surface.
