What will happen in the world in the 2030s
32.9 pts (24h)ChineOne-OffIATechSanté et médecineEspace13aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleThe world population exceeds 8.5 billion 82.9%+32.9ptEn tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+32.9 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète11 oct. 26, 08:34 UTC31 déc. 39, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What will happen in the world throughout the 2020s
Manifold MarketsWhich positive news category will make 2026 world-wide headlines?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich Money & Macro megatrends for 2026 will be correct?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiAI bubble burst by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves each option independently to YES if the specified event occurs or condition is met between January 1, 2030, and December 31, 2039, and NO otherwise.
- Standard resolutions will be determined using official data from recognized international institutions, government bodies, or reputable news reporting.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if the World Health Organization (WHO) formally declares a global pandemic or Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) for a pathogen that leads to widespread global travel restrictions or global reported mortality exceeding 1 million deaths during the 2030s.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if major independent governance tracking organizations (e.g., Freedom House or the V-Dem Institute) classify all sovereign nations worldwide as non-democratic or authoritarian.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if major AI research organizations or professional bodies (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, or AAAI) formally announce or reach scientific consensus that a system meets an established operational definition of AGI.