Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 81%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète24 déc. 25, 07:08 UTC31 déc. 35, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?
PolymarketWill China have 4 aircraft carriers by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Navy commission more than three Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Navy commission more than five Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Navy commission more than four Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
https://x.com/RyanFedasiuk/status/2003634067997409613?s=20
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if China launches nine or more aircraft carriers by December 31, 2035. "Launch" is defined as the vessel having its official launch ceremony, not the date of the dry dock flooding or when it is commissioned into service.
- Resolution will be verified through official Chinese state media announcements.
- As of 2025, China has three active aircraft carriers: the Liaoning, Shandong, and Fujian.
- A fourth carrier, the Type 004, has been under construction since 2024 and is expected to feature nuclear propulsion.