Will China impose new trade restrictions on Taiwan before October 31, 2026?
Trade PolicyOne-OffChina1moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 83.3%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète4 août 26, 03:18 UTC30 oct. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
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ForecastExRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, between August 4, 2026, and October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, the government of the People's Republic of China officially announces or implements new trade restrictions, import bans, export controls, or preferential tariff suspensions specifically targeting goods or services imported from or exported to Taiwan.
- For the purposes of this market, "new trade restrictions" includes:
- The suspension of preferential tariffs on additional product items under the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) beyond those suspended prior to August 4, 2026.
- Complete or partial import bans on Taiwanese agricultural, chemical, industrial, or high-tech goods.
- Unilateral bans or restrictions on the export of raw materials (such as natural sand or rare earths) from China to Taiwan.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will China impose new trade restrictions on Taiwan before October 31, 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 83% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will China impose new trade restrictions on Taiwan before October 31, 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will China impose new trade restrictions on Taiwan before October 31, 2026? doit être résolu le 30 octobre 2026.
- Comment Will China impose new trade restrictions on Taiwan before October 31, 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria