Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffSpaceChina3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 64.6%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète1 janv. 26, 06:30 UTC31 déc. 29, 15:59 UTC
Tendances
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Resolution Criteria
- China currently operates three active aircraft carriers: the Liaoning, Shandong, and Fujian.
- This market resolves YES if China officially commissions a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before January 1, 2030.
- "Commissioned" means the carrier is formally accepted into service by the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in an official ceremony.
- Resolution will be verified through official Chinese government announcements, state media (Xinhua, CCTV), or credible international defense reporting (Pentagon reports, USNI, Jane's Defense Weekly).
- Note: The Type 004 will be much larger and also likely the first Chinese surface warship to feature nuclear marine propulsion, so it would not count as a "conventional" carrier for this market.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 65% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution Criteria