Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 81.9%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète14 nov. 23, 14:24 UTC2 janv. 30, 19:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the next French aircraft carrier be (initially) named after a woman?
Manifold MarketsWill any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRègles
Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19767/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
- This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2030, reporting from credible sources indicates that a United States aircraft carrier has been sunk, destroyed, or damaged such that it must be decommissioned due to enemy military action.
- This question pertains to the carrier vehicle (CVs) class, NOT helicopter carriers (such as LHD's).
- Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour [Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 82% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand [Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- [Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2030.
- Comment [Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?