Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour [Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050? ?

Manifold Markets cote No à 58.6% au 27 octobre 2026.

[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?

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Données au 27 oct. 2026, 06:35 UTC · politique pm-quality-4

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14 nov. 23, 14:28 UTC3 janv. 50, 04:00 UTC

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Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/18545/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2050, reporting from credible sources indicates that a United States aircraft carrier has been sunk, destroyed, or damaged such that it must be decommissioned due to enemy military action.
This question pertains to the carrier vehicle (CVs) class, NOT helicopter carriers (such as LHD's).
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.