Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 82.1%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète1 juin 25, 06:05 UTC31 déc. 28, 04:40 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Yeat and Billie Eilish make a song together this year?
KalshiWill WW3 start before gta6?
Manifold MarketsWill WW3 happen before GTA6?
Manifold MarketsWill any scenes of The White Lotus season 4 be set at a Bilderberg Conference (or similar) event?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRègles
In 'The Reality War', the Fifteenth Doctor, played by Ncuti Gatwa, appears to regenerate into a new incarnation of Doctor Who's titular character played by Billie Piper.
- There has, however, been no official confirmation that Billie Piper has been cast as the Sixteenth Doctor.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if, by the end of 2028, Billie Piper appears in a televised Doctor Who episode in which she is credited as The Doctor, and the BBC confirms that she plays the Sixteenth Doctor.
- This market will resolve NO if someone other than Billie Piper is confirmed as the Sixteenth Doctor by the BBC, or if the matter is unresolved at the end of 2028.
- Clarifications
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Billie Piper play the Sixteenth Doctor in Doctor Who? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 82% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Billie Piper play the Sixteenth Doctor in Doctor Who? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Billie Piper play the Sixteenth Doctor in Doctor Who? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment Will Billie Piper play the Sixteenth Doctor in Doctor Who? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : In 'The Reality War', the Fifteenth Doctor, played by Ncuti Gatwa, appears to regenerate into a new incarnation of Doctor Who's titular character played by Billie Piper.