Will Argentina start another war over the Falklands before April 2027?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffAmérique latine5mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 88.8%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète26 avr. 26, 16:03 UTC31 mars 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?
PolymarketWill the US recognise Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands?
KalshiWill AI start a war before 2040
Manifold MarketsWill Argentina successfully regain sovereignty over the Falklands by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands before 2027?
FutuurRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any time before April 26, 2027, the government of Argentina initiates, declares, or engages in an armed military conflict against the United Kingdom with the explicit objective of taking control of the Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas).
- An "armed military conflict" implies official military engagement between the armed forces of both nations.
- This market resolves to NO if no such conflict occurs before the specified date.
- The primary sources for resolution will be official announcements from the governments of the United Kingdom and Argentina, as well as reporting from reputable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC).
- If the event occurs, the market will resolve based on confirmation from these sources.