Will Argentina successfully regain sovereignty over the Falklands by the end of 2027?
Latin AmericaOne-Off1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95.7%
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 minutes
24 janv. 24, 18:29 UTC1 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
Milei's new administration has reiterated his desire to regain the Falklands as Argentine possessions (spanish announcement here).
- Given he's outright ruled out the use of force (as he correctly observed that didn't go well last time), he's announced he intends to explore "all diplomatic channels."
- This market resolves YES if the Falklands have returned to Argentine possession by the close date, or if an official agreement has been ratified between Britain and Argentina about transferring sovereignty of the islands to Argentina on some fixed timeline.
- This remains a YES even if there are some caveats to that sovereignty, so long as the international community recognizes the islands as being Argentine territory.
- I reserve the right to adjudicate edge cases of this sort by my own sole opinion.
- It resolves NO if the Falklands remain a British possession at market close, or if some other country has taken them over.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Argentina successfully regain sovereignty over the Falklands by the end of 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 96% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Argentina successfully regain sovereignty over the Falklands by the end of 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Argentina successfully regain sovereignty over the Falklands by the end of 2027? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2028.
- Comment Will Argentina successfully regain sovereignty over the Falklands by the end of 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Milei's new administration has reiterated his desire to regain the Falklands as Argentine possessions (spanish announcement here).