Will Argentina successfully regain sovereignty over the Falklands by the end of 2027?
Amérique latineOne-Off1a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 97.2%
Non 97.2%Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète24 janv. 24, 18:29 UTC1 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands?
KalshiWill the US recognise Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands before 2027?
FutuurIf Argentina successfully invades the Falkland Islands before 2040, will the UK regain control of them within a year?
Manifold MarketsWill Argentina start another war over the Falklands before April 2027?
Manifold MarketsUK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Milei's new administration has reiterated his desire to regain the Falklands as Argentine possessions (spanish announcement here).
- Given he's outright ruled out the use of force (as he correctly observed that didn't go well last time), he's announced he intends to explore "all diplomatic channels."
- This market resolves YES if the Falklands have returned to Argentine possession by the close date, or if an official agreement has been ratified between Britain and Argentina about transferring sovereignty of the islands to Argentina on some fixed timeline.
- This remains a YES even if there are some caveats to that sovereignty, so long as the international community recognizes the islands as being Argentine territory.
- I reserve the right to adjudicate edge cases of this sort by my own sole opinion.
- It resolves NO if the Falklands remain a British possession at market close, or if some other country has taken them over.