Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends?
ÉconomieOne-OffUS Politics22jManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 98.8%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète24 mars 26, 21:35 UTC30 sept. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves to YES if an ICE officer discharges a firearm at a person within a U.S. commercial airport and the act fails the "Justified" criteria based on the best available evidence.
- If no shooting occurs by the end of the current government shutdown over DHS funding, or if the shooting is objectively justified, this market resolves to NO.
- "Justified" Criteria (Resolves NO)
- A shooting is JUSTIFIED if any of the following physical facts are confirmed by video, forensics, official reports, or widely corroborated mainstream reports:
- Brandishing: The subject was brandished a firearm (or realistic replica), explosive, or bladed weapon.
- Detected Weapon + Threat: A weapon was known to be present (e.g., via scanner/search) AND the subject was aggressively non-compliant or making a move to retrieve it.
Marchés ouverts
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
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- No change-3.0pt45%
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+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
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+23 résultats de plus
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- 30,7 k €
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- Above 0.1%99%
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+12 résultats de plus
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- 334,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8 k €
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+4 résultats de plus
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- 10,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 10,7 k €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
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- Volume 24h
- 6,9 k €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
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- 5,3 k €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
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- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 99% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends? doit être résolu le 30 septembre 2026.
- Comment Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves to YES if an ICE officer discharges a firearm at a person within a U.S. commercial airport and the act fails the "Justified" criteria based on the best available evidence.