Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?
ÉconomieOne-OffPolitique américainePolitique1mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète4 févr. 26, 17:47 UTC30 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- A US federal shutdown occurs when funding legislation required to finance the federal government is not enacted before the next fiscal year begins.
- This market resolves YES if any federal shutdown (full or partial) occurs during November 2026.
- A "full" shutdown occurs when none of the 12 annual appropriations are in force, while a "partial" shutdown occurs when only some bills have been enacted, so only unfunded departments and programs shut down.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from Congress, the Office of Management and Budget, or major news outlets confirming a shutdown has begun.
- The market resolves NO if Congress passes and the President signs appropriations bills or a continuing resolution funding the government through November 30, 2026 without a lapse occurring.