Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2030
GéopolitiqueOne-Off4aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 74.7%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète19 sept. 23, 15:12 UTC2 janv. 31, 07:59 UTC
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
It should be mostly undamaged.
- Either captured, or taken after forced landing, or similar.
- Something like the Hainan incident would count. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan_Island_incident
- Even if the pilot has a chance to manually destroy sensitive aspects of the plane before being taken, as long as the exterior is mostly intact it would count.
- Even a crash which the pilot walks away from would likely result in a plane in good enough condition to count.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2030 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 75% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2030 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2030 doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2031.
- Comment Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2030 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : It should be mostly undamaged.