Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 85%
Prévisionnistes
37
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète31 déc. 23, 15:39 UTC9 déc. 34, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
AI model achieves superhuman ELO on Codeforces by June 1st 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
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PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
KalshiTop AI model in September?
KalshiRègles
By ‘superhuman’, we mean: twice as capable of persuading a person of something than the best human.
- ‘Twice as capable’ means twice as fast, or in half the interactions.
- Or, can persuade twice as many people from a pool than the best human can.
- Determination will, I imagine, be obvious.
- If it is not, then a determination process will be built at that point.