Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 76.8%
Prévisionnistes
35
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète27 nov. 25, 14:04 UTC31 mai 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034.
Manifold MarketsWill any AI model achieve 4k on CodeForces by EOY?
Manifold MarketsWill a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Similar to https://manifold.markets/StephenMcAleese/will-an-ai-model-achieve-superhuman
- This market will be resolved as YES if any AI lab announces that their model has achieved a higher ELO than any human on the Codeforces leaderboard at the time of the model's release.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour AI model achieves superhuman ELO on Codeforces by June 1st 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 77% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand AI model achieves superhuman ELO on Codeforces by June 1st 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- AI model achieves superhuman ELO on Codeforces by June 1st 2027? doit être résolu le 31 mai 2027.
- Comment AI model achieves superhuman ELO on Codeforces by June 1st 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Similar to https://manifold.markets/StephenMcAleese/will-an-ai-model-achieve-superhuman