Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 91%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard1 mars 24, 12:27 UTC1 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will it be found out by 2052 that a human clone was created before September 5th, 2022, that lived for at least 9 months after conception?
Manifold MarketsWill a human clone be born before the end of 2035?
Manifold MarketsUS test scores in Reading in 2026?
KalshiIs there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]
Manifold MarketsWill "Annoyingly Principled People, and what befall..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRègles
i.e., has a birth certificate and/or whatever other documents identify them as a known person in a given society.
- Stillbirth/ fetal death doesn't count (live birth must occur, even if from an artificial or non-human womb).
- Resolves NO if no clone is born or none that are become citizens.
