Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 88.5%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 22 heures
Obsolète20 juil. 26, 00:43 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Alok Singh, Nate Bottman, Ryan Alweiss, or Elliot Glazer ever win the Alternative Fields Medal?
Manifold MarketsWill Carina Hong win a Fields Medal?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This question tracks a $10,000 even-odds bet between me (Tamay Besiroglu) and Christian Szegedy, an AI researcher and founding member of xAI.
- The bet was agreed publicly on X on July 18, 2026.
- See my X post describing the bet.
- This market resolves YES if, after the conclusion of the 2026 Fields Medal cycle and on or before December 31, 2030, the International Mathematical Union officially awards at least one Fields Medal to a human mathematician.
- It resolves NO if no human mathematician is awarded a Fields Medal during that period.
- The 2026 Fields Medals are explicitly excluded.
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+0.9pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-21.9pt48%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 230,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 77,1 k €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 109,5 k €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,9 k €
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 89% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.
- Comment Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This question tracks a $10,000 even-odds bet between me (Tamay Besiroglu) and Christian Szegedy, an AI researcher and founding member of xAI.