Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030?

Questions fréquentes

Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030? ?

Manifold Markets cote Yes à 87.6% au 29 octobre 2026.

Quand Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?

Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.

Comment Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030? est-il réglé ?

Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This question tracks a $10,000 even-odds bet between me (Tamay Besiroglu) and Christian Szegedy, an AI researcher and founding member of xAI.

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POLYMARKET

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

• December 31-0.1pt4%
• October 31-0.3pt0%

+5 résultats de plus

Volume total

67,9 M €

Volume 24h

123,3 k €

KALSHI

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

• Before Jan 20, 202923.5%
• Before Jan 1, 2028+1.0pt15.5%
• Before Jan 1, 2027-0.2pt4.7%

POLYMARKET

What will the biggest earthquake be on October 29, 2026?

• 6.1 or more+75.5pt95.2%
• 5.3 to 5.4-14.6pt1%
• 5.5 to 5.6-17.0pt1%

+3 résultats de plus

POLYMARKET

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

• 1+0.5pt90.9%
• 2-1.5pt9.1%
• 30%

+3 résultats de plus

KALSHI

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

• Yes+7.5pt82.3%
• No17.7%

Volume total

398,6 k €

Volume 24h

2,6 k €

POLYMARKET

Is Earth flat?

• No-0.2pt99%
• Yes+0.2pt1%

Volume total

58,6 k €

Volume 24h

1,9 k €

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