Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 90.4%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète18 juil. 26, 05:42 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030?
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KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if exactly four humans, and no other parties, are officially awarded the Fields Medal in the calendar year 2030.
- It resolves to NO if this is not the case (in the calendar year 2030) for any reason.
- For example, this market will resolve NO if any AI model is awarded the medal in 2030, or if no medals are awarded in 2030.
- The Fields Medal is awarded every four years by the International Mathematical Union (IMU) during the International Congress of Mathematicians (ICM).
- According to the IMU statutes, the selection committee is instructed to choose at least two and no more than four Fields Medalists under the age of 40, with a strong preference for awarding exactly four medals.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 90% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.
- Comment Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria