Will 10% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035
GéopolitiqueOne-OffSanté et médecineEurope8aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 81.5%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète5 juil. 25, 18:08 UTC30 juin 35, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will 1% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Disasters which count
- Nuclear strike or accident
- Infrastructure collapse
- War also counts
- Deaths from old age, traffic, etc don't count unless related.
- A death by disaster is an unintended (by the victim, at a prior state in time) death.
