Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 98%
Non 98%Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète3 juin 23, 15:18 UTC1 févr. 35, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will 10% of New York city die in any year from disaster, before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill 10% of London die in any year from disaster, before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill 10% of San Francisco die in any year from disaster, before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill 1% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035
Manifold MarketsMeasles cases in 2026?
KalshiHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Some examples of disasters:
- -Nuclear strike
- -Infrastructure collapse, such as from a solar flare
- If a disaster affects Boston, Massachusetts, we'll refer to the total deaths attributed during the calendar year.
- We then calculate that as a percent of the prior population.
- If it's 10% or more, we resolve Yes.