Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleSolve at least 3 of {P2/5 (non-APMO), P4 (APMO)} 83.4%En tête parmi 20 options
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 21 heures
Obsolète30 juil. 26, 02:08 UTC30 juin 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which of the following will I achieve in the 2026-2027 TST Cycle?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before May 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a millennium problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRègles
I am part of the 2027 TST.
- A solve is counted as a 5, 6, or 7 on a problem.
- Getting swept means 0 solves; sweeping means getting 3 solves (5 on APMO).
- See @/vincentWang/will-i-qualify-for-rmm-2027 for RMM 2027 qualification market.
- TST 2026: 700 700 720 77707 270776
- TSTST 2026: 770 770 770
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+0.9pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-21.9pt48%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 230,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 77,1 k €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 109,5 k €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,9 k €
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which of these will I do during the 2027 USA TST cycle? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Solve at least 3 of {P2/5 (non-APMO), P4 (APMO)} à 83% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which of these will I do during the 2027 USA TST cycle? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which of these will I do during the 2027 USA TST cycle? doit être résolu le 30 juin 2027.
- Comment Which of these will I do during the 2027 USA TST cycle? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : I am part of the 2027 TST.