Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Other 31.7%En tête parmi 8 options
Other 31.7%Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard18 janv. 24, 14:27 UTC1 janv. 50, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which country will lose territory to a newly founded country by 2050? [add responses]
Manifold MarketsWill a Muslim Majority Country Lose Its Majority Before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill Spain lose any territory before 01/01/2030? (Either land or territorial waters)
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine lose more territory in 2026 than it did in 2025?
Manifold MarketsEuropean country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by which date?
PolymarketX banned in any European country by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
For the purposes of this market, I will consider countries which are members of the OSCE.
- This is meant to be a proxy of "European country", but note that it also includes several (post-Soviet) countries which are geographically in Asia.
- I will not count the US and Canada.
- ! Any changes which result directly from the current Russia-Ukraine war do not count !
- I will only count significant changes; I don't think there will be many opportunities for ambiguity, but, to give a formal criterion, the border change should affect at least 1.000 people.
- This is meant to rule out minor adjustments, e.g. to a border along a river which changes its course.