Will a Muslim Majority Country Lose Its Majority Before 2040?
Moyen-OrientOne-OffReligionSociété et cultureGéopolitique13aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 63%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète3 mai 26, 11:30 UTC31 déc. 39, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Criterion: If a country where the population is >50.0% Muslim as of May 03, 2026 is less than or equal to 50.0% Muslim before 2040, the market resolves YES.
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_by_country#Countries Eligible Countries: Here are the countries that currently have a Muslim majority and to which the criterion applies: Maldives, Mauritania, Iran, Somalia, Afghanistan, Djibouti, Western Sahara, Algeria, Morocco, Comoros, Niger, Tajikistan, Tunisia, Palestine, Azerbaijan, Jordan, Senegal, Yemen, Libya, Mayotte, Pakistan, Gambia, Mali, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Iraq, Turkmenistan, Kosovo, Turkey, Bangladesh, Egypt, Guinea, Uzbekistan, Indonesia, Syria, Oman, Brunei, Kyrgyzstan, Sierra Leone, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Burkina Faso, Malaysia, Chad, Eritrea, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
