Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleDecember 1–31, 2026 68.8%+35.5ptEn tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+35.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète22 oct. 26, 06:09 UTC1 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Grok 4.8+ (xAI) release date
Manifold MarketsGrok 5 (xAI) release date
Manifold MarketsWill xAI release a video game before 2027?
KalshiWill Legally Blonde 3 release before Grok 6?
Manifold MarketsWill xAI release a game made entirely with AI that is better made than the best made Roblox game in the next 5 yrs?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves to the period in which xAI first makes a model officially named "Grok 5" available to the public.
- What counts as released: any member of the public can use it, either in the Grok app / grok.com / X (free or paid tiers both count) or through the xAI API.
- Variants count if the official name starts with "Grok 5" (e.g. "Grok 5 Mini", "Grok 5 Heavy").
- What does not count: an announcement, a demo, a livestream, a benchmark post, a waitlist, or access limited to selected testers or enterprise partners.
- Models with other names (Grok 4.8, Grok 4.9, etc.) do not count, however strong they are.
- Resolving sources: xAI's official news page (https://x.ai/news), the official @xai account on X, or xAI's API model docs, with Reuters/The Verge/TechCrunch as backup to confirm availability and date.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
- Également disponible sur Kalshi — When will xAI release Grok 5? · Before 2027 39%
- Également disponible sur Manifold Markets — Grok 5 (xAI) release date · Before 2027 33%