Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBefore 2027 67.9%+0.6ptEn tête parmi 17 options
Prévisionnistes
72
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+3.9 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
8 août 25, 18:37 UTC1 nov. 26, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @8AyI5Np5yl (this market)
Marchés ouverts
AI
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-6.5pt85%
- December 15,-5.5pt85%
- November 30,-10.5pt82%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 55,6 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.8pt68%
- ChatGPT+0.8pt16.5%
- Grok+1.0pt6.8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,4 M €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt92%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-9.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-9.0pt83%
+9 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- No IPO by December 31, 2026+4.8pt98%
- 1.5T+-0.9pt2%
- <500B-0.2pt0%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude91.6%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt1.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 71,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 34,8 k €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$900B+10.4pt100%
- ↑$1.0T-4.5pt82%
- ↑$1.25T-10.5pt52%
+12 résultats de plus
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- OpenAI IPO by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Most popular AI this week
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 7–13
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Grok 5 (xAI) release date ?
- Manifold Markets cote Before 2027 à 68% au 13 septembre 2026.
- Quand Grok 5 (xAI) release date sera-t-il résolu ?
- Grok 5 (xAI) release date doit être résolu le 1 novembre 2026.
- Comment Grok 5 (xAI) release date est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : "Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.