Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 25 juil. 2026, 08:40 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Prévision communautaire actuelleBefore September 2026 5.2%-11.0ptEn tête parmi 13 options
Prévisionnistes
64
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour avant-hier
Obsolète8 août 25, 18:3730 août 26, 18:36
Tendances
0%
0%
0%
0%
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Before August 20262%
Comparer les plateformes· Before September 2026
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiMeilleur global90% de correspondance · vérifié | Moyenne | 64% | — | 57,1 € | 18,6 k € | il y a 8 minutes | Ouvrir → |
| Manifold MarketsCette page | — | 5% | — | — | — | avant-hier |
Également disponible sur Kalshi
When will xAI release Grok 5?
1.0 pts2mo
58.7%
+1.0pt36.7%
4.6%
50 • Qualité moyenneSpread largeLiquidité moyenneAmbiguïté élevée
Volume total38,2 k €
Volume 24h57,1 €
KALSHIRègles
"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @8AyI5Np5yl (this market)
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Tendance du volume
$5008 juil.8j de données25 juil.
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KALSHIActifs dans ces sujets
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"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @8AyI5Np5yl (this market)