Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBefore 3/1/2027 55.8%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète14 juin 26, 21:28 UTC2 août 27, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
Resolution criteria
- Each answer option in this independent multiple-choice market represents a date threshold.
- An option will resolve to YES if Anthropic officially releases any model from the "Claude 6" family before the specified date in UTC, and NO otherwise.
- "Claude 6" Family Release: This refers to the first official release (including general availability, developer beta, or limited-partner/preview access) of any model officially designated as part of the "Claude 6" generation (e.g., Claude 6 Sonnet, Claude 6 Opus, Claude 6 Haiku, Claude Fable 6, Claude Mythos 6, or a standalone "Claude 6").
- Resolution Logic: If a release occurs, all options with a date after the release date will resolve to YES, and options with a date before or on the release date will resolve to NO.
- For example, if Claude 6 is released on September 15, 2026, "the named outcome" resolves to NO, while "the named outcome" and all subsequent options resolve to YES.
