Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
2030 or later 43.5%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète26 juil. 24, 09:08 UTC1 janv. 30, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01?
Manifold MarketsOrion (a device that promises to project artificial vision into the brains of blind people) approved for sale by the end of 2027?
FutuurWill someone in "dama iipeikou" newly solve Project Euler 696 before the end of this year?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. attempt a large scale Solar Radiation Modification geoengineering project before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRègles
The Stacks Project is an extensive open-source textbook and reference work focused on algebraic geometry and related fields.
- Each lemma, theorem, definition, remark, example, and other significant items within the project is assigned a unique tag, with the current scope of the project including more than 21000 tags.
- This question resolves to the first year in which at least 11000 tags of the stacks project have been formalized in a proof assistant such as Lean, Coq, Isabelle, etc. It resolves to the last option (the named outcome) if no such milestone has been reached by the end of 2029.
- Further information on resolution criteria:
- I consider it to be almost certain that a formalization as above will require a concerted project which includes a mechanism to track the progress on the number of formalized tags.
- If such a project is created, this would be used to determine the year of resolution above.
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 226,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 125,2 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 108,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will the majority of the Stacks project be formalized? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2030 or later à 44% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will the majority of the Stacks project be formalized? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will the majority of the Stacks project be formalized? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment When will the majority of the Stacks project be formalized? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The Stacks Project is an extensive open-source textbook and reference work focused on algebraic geometry and related fields.