What will happen in Russia around elections of 2026?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffÉlectionPolitiqueRussie / Ukraine
Manifold MarketsFerméSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréDonnées de résolution non vérifiées: United Russia officially gets absolute majority (>310/450)
Ce résultat est inféré ou n'est pas appuyé par des preuves de règlement de niveau fournisseur.
Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 11 oct. 2026, 11:31 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Chronologie des Probabilités
Yabloko candidates are votable in day of elections97.1%
Major disruptions because of massive anti Putin/United Russia/war voting.0%
New: major part of people in Russia believe elections were falsified such that result changes (winner changes or at least UR doesn't get majority)0%
United Russia officially gets absolute majority (>310/450)100%
Résultat en attente
Résultat en attente
Résultat en attente
Résultat en attente
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What bad things will happen in Russia after elections? [prop bets]
Manifold MarketsUkraine holds elections in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Vladimir Putin stop being president of Russia before Volodymyr Zelensky stops being president of Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump ever visit Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine hold a presidential election in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill credible evidence emerge linking Tulsi Gabbard to Putin before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Moods in the society suprise me again and again.
- Yabloko was initially allowed into elections, got massive support from young people, and even now there still are individual candidates from Yabloko even though the party list was rejected.
- Blocks of everything in internet, blocks for VPN connections on major Russian platforms, whitelists, full shutdowns.
- Ukrainian strikes on oil and marketplaces, gas shortages.
- Speeches of before apolitical or pro Putin people.
- All that is more than I expected.
