Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleCollatz conjecture is true 84.7%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète14 avr. 22, 15:57 UTC1 janv. 50, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
If someone publishes a counterexample Collatz conjecture and the mathematical community accepts it, this market resolves to that number.
- If someone publishes a proof of Collatz conjecture and the mathematical community accepts it, this market resolves #1.
- If this market doesn't resolve by the end of 2049, it resolves N/A. Apr 14, 12:08am: This was inspired by my Discord conversation with Gurkenglas about free-response market mechanisms.
- The point was to test / demonstrate a specific type of market failure with the current mechanism.
- Note: When I created this market the answers were numbered. #1 refers to the first answer submitted, in this case "the named outcome".
