Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleStroke 15.4%En tête parmi 20 options
Prévisionnistes
57
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète7 oct. 22, 15:22 UTC14 oct. 30, 21:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Vladimir Putin’s death be the result of an assassination?
Manifold MarketsWill a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve after Vladimir Putin dies to the general answer which describes the cause of his death, as agreed by the consensus of credible media reporting.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 55,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8 k €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What will be the cause of Putin's death? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Stroke à 15% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand What will be the cause of Putin's death? sera-t-il résolu ?
- What will be the cause of Putin's death? doit être résolu le 14 octobre 2030.
- Comment What will be the cause of Putin's death? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve after Vladimir Putin dies to the general answer which describes the cause of his death, as agreed by the consensus of credible media reporting.