Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
In 2030 or earlier 50.6%En tête parmi 7 options
In 2030 or earlier 50.6%Prévisionnistes
79
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-4.4 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 49 minutes
En retard26 janv. 24, 09:59 UTC2 janv. 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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Manifold MarketsRègles
With AI models becoming more powerful, they are starting to be used in more and more high-stakes scenarios.
- This means that an AI mistake could have significant consequences.
- In this question I'm considering situations in which AI actions are directly causing an incident, accident or catastrophe resulting in $1 billion of damages.
- If the event causes loss of life, each death counts as $10 million of damages.
- The incident should be a direct consequence of the AI's decisions, actions or output.
- It should not have happened if the AI wasn't involved.
