Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
In 2030 or earlier 55%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
75
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète26 janv. 24, 09:59 UTC2 janv. 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
0%
Marchés Associés
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PolymarketRègles
With AI models becoming more powerful, they are starting to be used in more and more high-stakes scenarios.
- This means that an AI mistake could have significant consequences.
- In this question I'm considering situations in which AI actions are directly causing an incident, accident or catastrophe resulting in $1 billion of damages.
- If the event causes loss of life, each death counts as $10 million of damages.
- The incident should be a direct consequence of the AI's decisions, actions or output.
- It should not have happened if the AI wasn't involved.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives? ?
- Manifold Markets cote In 2030 or earlier à 55% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2028.
- Comment Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : With AI models becoming more powerful, they are starting to be used in more and more high-stakes scenarios.