Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 85.5%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard27 mai 25, 10:56 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This market resolves YES if undergraduate enrolment in the UK drops by 20% or more relative to the 2025 baseline:
- Total undergraduate enrolment falls below 80% of the 2025 level, based on official data from HESA (Higher Education Statistics Agency) or a UK government source.
- Crucially, the drop must be plausibly linked to AI.
- This could include evidence that students are choosing AI learning alternatives, institutions are citing AI as a reason for declining enrolment, or official reports attribute part of the decline to the growing role of AI has in automating the economy.
- The causal connection to AI does not need to be conclusive, but it must be reasonable and supported by documentation (e.g. policy papers, media reporting, or institutional statements).
- Please feel free to ask questions if you’re unsure how to interpret this criterion when betting.
