Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 71%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète15 févr. 26, 23:23 UTC31 déc. 34, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Unemployment rate for new college grads increases in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS unemployment rate at year-end 2034
KalshiWill US college enrollment rates increase from 2021 to 2026?
Manifold MarketsMexico unemployment rate in August
KalshiWhich EU country will have the highest unemployment rate?
Manifold MarketsUS unemployment rate at year-end 2026
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if the unemployment for recent US college grads exceeds 25% at any point before 2035.
- Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (IPUMS)
- https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market#--:explore:unemployment
- The highest data-point so far was 13.4% in May 2020 at the beginning of COVID.
- 2030 market: https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/unemployment-rate-for-recent-us-col
Marchés ouverts
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 90,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 358,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 35,8 k €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 548,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 29,8 k €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP-23.0pt71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP-2.0pt58%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,7 k €
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 17,7 k €
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-2.0pt22%
- Volume total
- 310,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 6,5 k €
- Recession this year?
- CPI in September
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2035? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 71% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2035? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2035? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2034.
- Comment Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2035? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if the unemployment for recent US college grads exceeds 25% at any point before 2035.