KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Above 4.0% 87%En tête parmi 15 options
Qualité du marché
42 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Liquidité
4,7 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
6.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 minutes
3 sept. 26, 01:00 UTC8 janv. 27, 13:29 UTC
Tendances
0%
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
US unemployment rate at year-end 2027
KalshiUS unemployment rate at year-end 2028
KalshiUS unemployment rate at year-end 2029
KalshiWill the US unemployment rate hit more than 6% in any month of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.2% in December 2026?
ForecastExUS unemployment rate at year-end 2030
KalshiRègles
If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2026 is above 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- “Year-end” refers exclusively to the December reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released.
- It does not refer to the annual average, the fourth-quarter average, the highest unemployment rate reported during the year, or the latest unemployment rate available as of December 31.
- The Expiration Value is the first non-preliminary seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for December 2026.
- Values will be compared as published without rounding.
- Later revisions will not affect the outcome.
Marchés ouverts
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 89,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 541,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 334,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8 k €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 10,7 k €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume total
- 612,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 6,9 k €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 2,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,3 k €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour US unemployment rate at year-end 2026 ?
- Kalshi cote Above 4.0% à 87% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand US unemployment rate at year-end 2026 sera-t-il résolu ?
- US unemployment rate at year-end 2026 doit être résolu le 8 janvier 2027.
- Comment US unemployment rate at year-end 2026 est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2026 is above 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.