Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 80.8%
Prévisionnistes
427
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète31 mars 25, 23:44 UTC21 janv. 29, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Donald Trump either serve a third term or run for U.S. President in an election held after 2028?
Manifold MarketsTrump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?
PolymarketTrump tries to fire Lisa Cook by which date?
PolymarketWill Trump run for a third term?
KalshiWill Trump participate in an election for a third term?
Manifold MarketsWill a bill or proposal be brought to a vote, that would allow President Trump to run for a third term?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Donald Trump makes a formal attempt to serve a third term as President of the United States after having already served two terms.
- This includes but is the not limited to:
- Filing paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to run for a third term
- Pursuing legal challenges to the 22nd Amendment
- Attempting to assume the presidency through other means (such as becoming Vice President and then assuming the presidency)
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 615,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 730,5 k €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+0.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.1pt9.9%
- Volume total
- 29,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 643,3 k €
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+37.0pt52.1%
- Nicolás Maduro-38.6pt46.9%
- No Head of State-0.3pt1%
+13 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.2pt16%
- Jon Ossoff16%
+48 résultats de plus
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep59%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30%
- Republicans sweep-1.2pt10%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 14,5 M €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.2pt93%
- Yes-1.2pt7%
- Volume total
- 19,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 483,5 k €
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- What will Trump say this week?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
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- Which party will win the House in 2026?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Trump tries to serve a third term? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 81% au 19 septembre 2026.
- Quand Trump tries to serve a third term? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Trump tries to serve a third term? doit être résolu le 21 janvier 2029.
- Comment Trump tries to serve a third term? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution Criteria