KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Before Election Day 20%-5.0ptEn tête parmi 3 options
Qualité du marché
48 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
1,1 €
Liquidité
45,4 k €
Liquidité élevéeÉcart
6.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
25 oct. 25, 14:00 UTC7 nov. 28, 15:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a bill or proposal be brought to a vote, that would allow President Trump to run for a third term?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win?
Manifold MarketsRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRègles
If Donald Trump has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBC
- The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency.
- Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement.
- The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed.
- Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify.
- Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 615,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 730,5 k €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+0.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.1pt9.9%
- Volume total
- 29,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 643,3 k €
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+37.0pt52.1%
- Nicolás Maduro-38.6pt46.9%
- No Head of State-0.3pt1%
+13 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.2pt16%
- Jon Ossoff16%
+48 résultats de plus
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep59%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30%
- Republicans sweep-1.2pt10%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 14,5 M €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.2pt93%
- Yes-1.2pt7%
- Volume total
- 19,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 483,5 k €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Trump run for a third term? ?
- Kalshi cote Before Election Day à 20% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Trump run for a third term? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Trump run for a third term? doit être résolu le 7 novembre 2028.
- Comment Will Trump run for a third term? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If Donald Trump has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.