If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
One-OffPolitique américainePolitiqueÉlection2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 82.3%
Prévisionnistes
403
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète24 janv. 24, 04:35 UTC8 nov. 28, 06:32 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Trump's attempt to run for the 3rd term be blocked by court(s)?
Manifold MarketsWill a bill or proposal be brought to a vote, that would allow President Trump to run for a third term?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win?
Manifold MarketsIf elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump run for a third term?
KalshiWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
In Ben Shapiro and Destiny's debate, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5I6A2cukme8 Ben Shapiro claim that there is 0% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term US president, while Destiny claim that there's 100% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term.
- Who is right?
- I use a rather broad definition of 'attempt' here.
- Resolves to 'Yes' if there is any attempt by Trump to run for a third term as president.
- This includes public statements, fundraising efforts, or other indications suggesting he is considering a run for a third term.
- Resolves NA if Trump did not become president in 2024