If Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win?
PolitiqueOne-OffUS PoliticsÉlection2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 51.7%
Prévisionnistes
86
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète19 févr. 25, 04:18 UTC9 nov. 28, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves N/A if he does not become constitutionally eligible for a third term by the filing deadlines in states that comprise ≥270 EVs for the 2028 election
- Update 2025-09-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Constitutional eligibility will be assessed on election day, rather than at state filing deadlines.
Marchés ouverts
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour If Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 52% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand If Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win? sera-t-il résolu ?
- If Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win? doit être résolu le 9 novembre 2028.
- Comment If Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves N/A if he does not become constitutionally eligible for a third term by the filing deadlines in states that comprise ≥270 EVs for the 2028 election