Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave 92.1%En tête parmi 7 options
Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave 92.1%Prévisionnistes
203
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète28 juin 24, 04:42 UTC20 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill I live to see Trump leave power?
Manifold MarketsTrump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?
PolymarketWhen in 2026 will US federal government present a new narrative, with documentation, regarding UAP/UFO events?
Manifold MarketsWhere will the US attack in 2026? [add your answer]
Manifold MarketsWhich of the following scenarios is likely to occur regarding Netanyahu’s trial?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If Trump loses the 2024 election, or e.g. has a heart attack immediately after winning, "Trump isn't elected or fails to take office" resolves YES and all other options resolve NO.
- If Trump is still in power in February 2029, even if it's temporary because of an emergency or something like that, "the named outcome" resolves YES and "the named outcome" resolves NO.
- If Trump is replaced by a Republican who he has strong influence over, that still counts as leaving office, unless it's incredibly clear to international observers that it was a total sham election to appoint a puppet.
- If there's substantial ambiguity around an option, it will resolve to a percentage based on my judgement.
- Update 2025-03-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Conspiracy Theories Do Not Count
- Claims by conspiracy theorists or groups (e.g. QAnon) that Trump is secretly POTUS will not affect the resolution.
